Bluewater shopping mall in Kent. Photograph: Corbis
Retail sales rose unexpectedly this month, in a sign that the sector has stabilised following the sharp fall in demand throughout most of this year.
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported this morning that a small majority of retailers enjoyed higher sales in September than a year ago.
“After such a difficult summer, it is encouraging to see signs that conditions in the retail sector are stabilising,” said Andy Clarke, chairman of the CBI Distributive Trades Panel. Clarke, who is also chief operating officer of Asda, added that consumers should be able to look forward to seeing more new products on the shelves after “months of heavy destocking”.
But Clarke also warned that: “With unemployment rising, wage growth low, and consumers building up their savings, spending is likely to remain subdued for some time.”
According to today’s CBI distributive trades survey, 39% of retailers said sales volumes rose in September compared with a year ago, while 36% said they fell. The resulting balance of +3 was significantly better than the -14 which the City was braced for.
The figures show that grocers are enjoying particularly solid trading, with a net balance of +80 reporting higher sales in September. But durable household goodsmakers, chemists and booksellers all reported a net fall in volumes.
With interest rates at a record low of 0.5%, lower mortgage costs means that consumers should have more disposable income. But separate data from the Bank of England this morning showed that a lack of credit availability helped to push remortgaging and unsecured borrowing down last month.
Howard Archer, economist at Global Insight, said the CBI data indicated that the UK economy returned to growth in the current quarter. But he was also cautious over the strength of the recovery.
“Low mortgage payments, reduced utility bills and easing inflation are boosting the purchasing power of a good many people, thereby giving them scope to step up their discretionary spending. Even so, the suspicion remains that the upside for consumer spending will be limited for some time to come as consumers overall still face serious obstacles. These notably include sharply higher and rising unemployment, low earnings growth and heightened debt levels,” Archer said.
The distributive trades survey has only reported a net rise in sales volumes in one other month, April, since the start of 2009. Today’s survey also showed that a net balance of +3 retailers expect them to rise in October.





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